COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY OF HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS IN THE PONTO-CASPIAN SEAS

  • A. S. Kazmin Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences
  • T. A. Shiganova Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences
DOI 10.29006/1564-2291.JOR-2022.50(3).3
Keywords multidecadal variability, air temperature, sea surface temperature, wind regime, atmospheric humidity, Ponto-Caspian seas

Abstract

NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the period of 1948–2020 were used to detect, describe (in geographical sense) and compare the patterns of multidecadal variability of the hydrometeorological parameters (thermal, dynamic and humidity) in the Ponto-Caspian region (Black Sea, Sea of Azov and Caspian Sea). Polynomial approximations of the time series of the annual mean values indicated the non-linear nature and periodicity of the long-term variability of considered parameters. Being geographically closely located, these seas reveal significantly different patterns of variability. In the Black Sea two temporal intervals of an average duration of 20 and 40 years with multidirectional trends of hydrometeorological parameters changes have been detected, while in the Caspian Sea three such intervals lasting 10–25 years are identified. The North-Eastern wind regime prevails over the both basins. However, if in the Black Sea wind components act unidirectionally (air temperature rise/cooling coincides with the weakening/ strengthening of both components), then in Caspian they act the opposite way, with the major portion of heat advection provided by zonal (Eastern) transport. Phases of air warming/cooling in both basins coincide with a weakening/strengthening of this transport. The time lag between the shift of dynamic and thermal (as well as humidity) regimes is about 6–8 years, suggesting a leading role of the large-scale atmospheric forcing variations in the regional variability. Specific humidity is positively correlated with air temperature and decreases/increases during periods of cooling/warming. In contrast, relative humidity and precipitation rate variations are negatively correlated with air temperature trends. Over the Caspian Sea intensification of Eastern transport and associated cooling coincide with a situation when the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index decreases to negative values, and the East Atlantic-West Russian pattern (EAWR) index is significantly positive. On the contrary, weakening of the Eastern transport and warming occur during a period of sharp strengthening of the NAO, coinciding with strongly negative values of the EAWR index. As for the Black Sea, the situation is controversial: the general pattern of variability in 1948–1992 was similar to that in the Caspian Sea and consistent with described combinations of indexes. However, after 1992 no pronounced trend in variability of NorthEastern transport have been observed.

References


  1. Dobrovolskii, A. D. and B. S. Zalogin, 1982: Seas of the USSR. Moscow, Moscow State University Publishing, 192 p. [in Russian].

  2. Ginzburg, A. I., A. G. Kostianoy, and N. A. Sheremet, 2004: Seasonal and interannual variability of the surface temperature in the Caspian Sea. Oceanology, 44 (5), 605–618.

  3. Ginzburg, A. I., A. G. Kostianoy, and N. A. Sheremet, 2005: Sea Surface Temperature Variability. The Caspian Sea Environment. Kostianoy A. G. and Kosarev A. N. (Eds.), The Handbook of Environmental Chemistry, Springer-Verlag GmbH, 5, 59–81.

  4. Ginzburg, A. I., A. G. Kostianoy, and N. A. Sheremet, 2012: Long-term variability of the surface temperature of Caspian Sea (1982–2009). Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirova­niya Zemli iz kosmosa, 9 (2), 262–269 [in Russian].

  5. Ginzburg, A. I. and A. G. Kostianoy, 2018a: Interannual variability of the Caspian Sea surface temperature in the current period (2003–2017). Vestnik Tverskogo universiteta, Seriya “Geografiya i geoekologiya”, 3, 57–65 [in Russian].

  6. Ginzburg, A. I. and A. G. Kostianoy, 2018b: Tendencies of changes in hydrometeorological parameters of the Caspian Sea in the modern period (1990s–2017). Sovremennye problemy distantsionnogo zondirovaniya Zemli iz kosmosa, 15, 195–207, https://doi.org/10.21046/2070-7401-2018-15-7-195-207 [in Russian].

  7. Ginzburg, A. I., A. G. Kostianoy, I. V. Serykh, and S. A. Lebedev, 2021: Climatic Changes in Hydrometeorological Parameters of the Black and Azov Seas (1980–2020). Oceanology, 61 (6), 900–912.

  8. Kazmin, A. S., 2021: Multidecadal variability of the hydrometeorological parameters in the Caspian Sea. Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. 250, 107150, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2020.107150.

  9. Kazmin, A. S. and A. G. Zatsepin, 2007: Long-term variability of surface temperature in the Black Sea, and its connection with the large-scale atmospheric forcing. J. Mar. Syst., 68, 293–301.

  10. Kazmin, A. S., A. G. Zatsepin, and H. Kontoyiannis, 2010: Comparative analysis of the long-term variability of winter surface temperature in the Black and Aegean Seas during 1982–2004 associated with large scale atmospheric forcing. Int. Journal of Climatology, 30, 1349–1359.

  11. Kontoyiannis, H., V. Papadopulos, A. Kazmin, A. Zatsepin, and D. Georgopulos, 2012: Climatic variability of the sub-surface sea temperatures in the Aegean-Black Sea system and relation to meteorological forcing. Clim. Dyn., 39 (6), 1507–1525.

  12. Kostianoy, A. G., A. I. Ginzburg, S. A. Lebedev, and N. A. Sheremet, 2014: Southern seas of Russia. Second assessment report of Roshydromet on climate change and its consequences on the territory of the Russian Federation. Federal service for Hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring (Roshydromet). Kattsov V. M., Semenov S. M. (Eds.), Moscow, FGBU “IGKE Rosgidrometa i RAN”, 644–683 [in Russian].

  13. Kostianoy, A. G., A. I. Ginzburg, O. Y. Lavrova, S. A. Lebedev, M. I. Mityagina, N. A. Sheremet, and D. M. Soloviev, 2019: Comprehensive Satellite Monitoring of Caspian Sea Conditions. Barale V. and Gade M. (Eds.). Remote Sensing of the Asian Sea, Springer, Cham, 505–521.

  14. Kovalenko, O. Yu. and E. N. Voskresenskaya, 2019: The decadal-multidecadal changes of ext­reme air temperature in the Black Sea region. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 272, https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/272/2/022183.

  15. Polonsky, A. B., 2013: Large-scale ocean-atmosphere interaction and its impact on global and regional climate variability. Kyev, Akademperiodica, 126 p.

  16. Polonsky, A. B., 2015: Oceans, global warming hiatus and regional climate variability (Global and regional climate change, atmospheric and marine variability in the Black Sea region). Germany, Lambert Academic Publishing Saarbrucken, 192 p.

  17. Polonsky, A. B., I. G. Shokurova, and V. N. Belokopytov, 2013: Ten-year variability of tempera­ture and salinity in the Black Sea. Morskoy Gidrofizicheckiy Zhurnal, 6, 27–41 [in Russian].

  18. Polonsky, A. B. and A. M. Novikova, 2018: Inter-decadal variability of surface temperature and cold intermediate layer in the Black Sea. Environmental control systems, 4 (34), 110–115, https://doi.org/10.33075/2220-5861-2018-4-110-115.
Published
2022-11-28
Issue
Vol 50 No 3 (2022): Journal of Oceanological Research
Section
Ocean physics and climate

Transfer of copyrights occurs on the basis of a license agreement between the Author and Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS