鄂霍次克海冰况与西堪察加洋流秋季海表温度的关系
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.29006/1564-2291.JOR-2026.54(2).2关键词:
鄂霍次克海, 冰盖, 冰况, 海表温度, 西堪察加洋流, 时空分析, 冰况预测因子摘要
本文基于ERA5再分析数据，分析了西堪察加洋流区域秋季（ 10–11月）海表温度与基于日本气象厅数据 计算的冰情主要特征（季节平均冰况、季节最大冰况、冰盖发展与消融阶段的冰况）之间的相互关系。空 间相关分析揭示了西堪察加洋流的关键影响区域，在这些区域内海表温度与冰况之间的统计关系达到最 大值。研究表明，在这些关键区域内，秋季海表温度与后续冰盖发展之间存在稳定的负相关关系。冰季不 同特征的决定系数为 R² ≈ 0.19–0.28。其中，季节平均冰况（ 12月至次年5月）的相关性最为显著：海表温 度每升高1°C，平均冰盖面积减少约10–13. 5万平方公里。冰盖对秋季热力条件的敏感性表现出明显的空 间不均一性：最强的相关性出现在海域东北部——冰盖形成的主要区域之一。所得结果证实了西堪察加 洋流系统在冰情年际变率形成中的重要作用，并表明秋季海表温度指标可作为鄂霍次克海季节内冰况长 期预测的有效因子之一。
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2026-06-30
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海洋物理学与气候
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