TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN THE CASPIAN SEA

Authors

  • E. A. Kulikov Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences
  • A. Yu. Medvedeva Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences
  • I. V. Fine Institute of Ocean Sciences, Sydney

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29006/1564-2291.JOR-2019.47(5).6

Keywords:

Caspian Sea, tsunami, numerical model, wave run-up, earthquake, seismicity, tsunami hazard, TUNAMI

Abstract

The article describes the tsunami hazard assessment for the coast of the Caspian Sea, in particular for the Absheron Peninsula. Due to the high socio-economic load on the coast of this region by electric power and oil production industries requirements, it is necessary to take into account risks even for such extremely rare natural phenomena like tsunamis. An earthquake with M = 8 ± 0.2 can occur throughout the Caspian Sea region, including land, once every 216 years, while for the water area the frequency of occurrence of such an event is 1620 years. The article presents the results of a tsunami hazard assessment based on a deterministic approach for the Absheron Peninsula. This approach of the tsunami hazard assessing of an arbitrary part of the coast consists of selecting of the strongest observed (or hypothetical) tsunami event from a neighborhood and from a distant zone, of the subsequent estimation of parameters for model sources and, finally, of the numerical modeling of tsunami generation and propagation from these sources. It was obtained that with the propagation of tsunami waves from the north to the coast of the Absheron Peninsula, its height can reach 3‒4 m for some parts of the coast with run-up 500‒1500 m.

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Published

2019-12-23

Issue

Vol. 47 No. 5 (2019): Journal of Oceanological Research

Section

International Round Table “The Future of the Caspian: Research Projects and Stud

License

Transfer of copyrights occurs on the basis of a license agreement between the Author and Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS

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