RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SEA ICE CONDITIONS IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK AND AUTUMN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE WEST KAMCHATKA CURRENT REGION

Authors

  • I. V. Shumilov Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics; Sakhalin State University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.29006/1564-2291.JOR-2026.54(2).2

Keywords:

Sea of Okhotsk, sea ice, ice extent, sea surface temperature, West Kamchatka Current, spatio-temporal analysis, predictors of sea ice extent

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between autumn (October–November) sea surface temperature in the West Kamchatka Current region, derived from ERA5 reanalysis data, and the main characteristics of the ice regime based on data provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), including seasonal mean ice extent, seasonal maximum ice extent, and ice extent during the development and decay phases of the ice cover. Spatial correlation analysis identified key zones of influence of the West Kamchatka Current, within which the strongest statistical associations between sea surface temperature and ice conditions are observed. Autumn sea surface temperature in the key zones exhibits a statistically significant inverse relationship with the subsequent development of the ice cover. The coefficients of determination for different ice season characteristics range from R² ≈ 0.19–0.28. The strongest association is found for the seasonal mean ice extent (December–May): an increase in sea surface temperature by 1 °C corresponds to a decrease in mean ice–covered area of approximately 100–135 ×103 km². A pronounced spatial heterogeneity in the sensitivity of the ice cover to autumn thermal conditions is identified, with the strongest associations observed in the northeastern region of the sea, one of the primary regions of ice formation. The results confirm the important role of the West Kamchatka Current system in modulating interannual variability of the ice regime and highlight the potential of using autumn sea surface temperature as a predictor for long–term forecasting of intraseasonal ice variability in the Sea of Okhotsk.

References


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Published

2026-06-30

Issue

Vol. 54 No. 2 (2026): Journal of Oceanological Research

Section

Ocean physics and climate

License

Transfer of copyrights occurs on the basis of a license agreement between the Author and Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS

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